Friday, February 10, 2012

Bill James on Dwight Evans

Bill James has an article up at Grantland lobbying for Dwight Evans being voted into the Hall of Fame. He's right, and not just from a sabermetric standpoint.

My paper at JQAS with Steve Salaga argues exactly the same point (actually for both Darrell and Dwight Evans, but Darrell isn't eligible any longer). However, we take a non-saber look at things and use the traditional statistics that we all know BBWAA voters love. Of course, we run a rather complex technique, but we still use these basic statistics. What do we find?

Well, even by the BBWAA's own criteria (based on their past voting behavior), Dwight Evans should be voted in. When we compare him to others in our analysis, he comes out ahead of Mark McGwire (sans-steroids, he's a sure thing), Barry Larkin (fielding is a weak point of our study), Joe Carter, and Dave Parker. And just behind Mike Piazza.

That means that--given how voters have behaved before--Evans should be in. If voters' own preferences toward traditional statistics say he should be in (without even accounting for Evans' great fielding!). And if Bill James's sabermetric thoughts think he should be in. Then why the hell isn't he in?

Hat Tip: Tango

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