Wednesday, January 5, 2011

NFL Balance and a Link

A while back I posted something quick and dirty on the NFL's competitive balance in 2009. I had some comments from Guy that were certainly interesting, and it seems that the RSD measure is becoming less accepted. I've been working on my own simulations to adjust how we measure game balance in the major sports to no avail, and I'm beginning to think that comparing across leagues is an effort in futility. This is mainly due to the fact that the way wins are decided are so astronomically different (known as the Production Function in Economics, or Contest Success Function in the contest world).

Anyway, last year I had the pleasure of seeing an up close and personal presentation by Liam Lenten (and Australian Sports Economist) using an adjusted version of the balance measure for NFL. There were only 4 of us at the presentation (it was over a summer semester), so I was able to talk more closely with him and his work than at most presentations. What he did was actually a relatively simple adjustment for schedule strength. It was interesting, and I'd encourage anyone to check out the paper and share your thoughts. Here is Dr. Lenten commenting on the NFL at The Sports Economist (he has the link to his paper there).

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