Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Links and Stuff

So I've been pretty MIA the last 2 months or so. With good reason, as I mentioned in a previous post. It's likely that I won't be posting too much here anymore. Maybe just links and things like that. I just have too much work to do, and my 'blog' time will be spent on Fantasy from here on I think over at Fantasy Ball Junkie. In fact, we have a new post up on keepers. Same philosophy as our 2010 article, but a little more abstract because I had to try and predict 2011 draft position. That's really not an easy task, but it turns out that ADP is a smoother function of previous year performance (very smooth in fact) than expected current year performance. That means we can predict 2011 draft position pretty well simply using 2010 stats and sticking them in a player rater for a single score and a simple regression. Obviously, position comes into play at some point, but it works relatively well.

1. Here's the link to the new keeper list at FBJ. Remember lists don't necessarily extrapolate very well. If you don't pay a price for your keepers, then the list won't apply. If the price you pay is extremely high, then it may not apply. Keep in mind the context.

2. Bryce Harper signs a Major League Contract. Pretty incredible given that he's only 17 and must be on the 40-man roster. There's a good chance the Nationals think he's pretty close to MLB ready. I'd be wary of that, but they haven't had any trouble promoting players immediately in the past. But Zimmerman and Strasburg were college players. Harper is 17. If he switches positions, that will only delay the call-up. And while everyone is claiming it's the largest contract out of the draft by a position player, they're wrong. Tex signed his deal in 2001. 9 years ago. Adjust that for inflation and it's higher than Harper by about $2 million. I guess it's all about shock value for Boras though. Why the need for 'status'? I don't really get it. Of course the next year's draft pick is going to be higher than the last one in nominal dollars. Might as well brag that as a grad student I make more than Ty Cobb did back in 1917 as an established player (don't get excited, it's not much more).

3. I wonder if the Jets are going to up the bid for Revis after last night's game. While it's only preseason and all the regulars aren't in, they can't be happy with Victor Cruz (?) torching his coverage for 145 yards and 3 TDs en route to the heralded Jets defense giving up 31 points. I've seen reports that Revis turned down $120 million. I don't really get it, but apparently he's one of those interested in the status that goes along with being the highest paid player. I don't normally get frustrated with players rejecting deals and holding out, but this situation is a bit silly. I think the Jets need him around to compete, as their offense still is not a big play squad.

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