Monday, March 8, 2010

Quantifying Fantasy Positional Tiers

Over at FBJ, I have a new post up that ranks players sequentially (or conditionally based on who's already been ranked) in a way that takes into account the drop off of value at a position from one pick to the next. While the idea of tiers and talent distribution is not new, I always see websites refer to this as 'positional scarcity', which is an imprecise description. Turns out Joe Mauer is arguably a 4th Overall Pick. Tim Lincecum? 17th overall. The rankings surprisingly align with the way I draft very closely (with the exception of ranking Ryan Howard above Fielder, Tex and Cabrera...but I'm just not a Howard fan). I don't go into huge detail about the way I weight the positions, and mostly let the 'Positional Loss' do the talking. However, it's important to note that I do weight the player value by the concentration of talent (and distribution of talent) at each position. Top heavy positions get larger positional weights than ones that are distributed more evenly. Therefore, you see Hanley Ramirez and Joe Mauer adjusted heavily even before I go through the sequential ranking. Albert Pujols? Well, he's still just that good. In a fantasy sense, his only precedent is probably Barry Bonds. Anyway, check it out.

Also up is a new post by Eriq, who is now cross posting his articles with the new Bloomberg Sports product. Eriq, as I've mentioned, is our editor at FBJ, and has written for Sports Illustrated, Hardball Times, Slate, the New York Times, and The Hollywood Reporter. Pretty exciting, as we get to use some of the Bloomberg Sports graphics on FBJ now!

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