Monday, August 24, 2009

2010 Mock Draft: Final Rounds

We finally get to the last day of the draft. One of the best picks here was probably Brandon Webb, though it is a risky pick. With Webb's surgery coming so late, his return at the beginning of next season is questionable. If he returns to 100% of his previous form, this is the best pick in the draft. Unfortunately, I didn't make the pick.

I took Scott Baker here, who has shown significant improvement over the course of this season. Baker has allowed 2 ER or less in 5 of his last 7 outings and maintains a solid K-rate. Coming into this season, a lot of people were high on him. Due to his rough start, people jumped off the bandwagon quickly. Scott has put things back together and looks like a frontline starter for the Twins.

My final pick was another young pitcher: Jair Jurrjens. While Jurrjens doesn't have the same strikeout potential as the rest of these guys, he has done quite well pitching for the Braves this season. He continues to impress and has stayed healthy for much of the past few years. I think the Braves are an improving club, and should provide him with some run support in 2010. My first choice in this round would have been Rich Harden, but someone swiped him just before my Scott Baker pick. Jurrjens is a flyer pick, but I think if he doesn't work out, there could be someone on the waiver wire in this league that will break out some serious skills next season.

Summary: All in all, I think I have BA under control and all but locked up. My pitching is underrated, and I feel could come out in the middle to top of the pack in WHIP, ERA, K and SV with good seasons from Gallardo and Peavy. Wins are pretty unpredictable, and none of my SP play for top-tier ball clubs. But I think it's reasonable to say my pitching is good enough for the middle of the pack in all but the Wins category, if not better. I should compete for Top 3 slots in R and SB. My power is lower than I would like, but I think it's also underrated. With Manny-Beltran-Lee-Cabrera, I could be looking at 130+ HR from those guys alone. And Geovany Soto has more power potential than most catchers. I think the big thing in a league like this is I didn't make any crucial mistakes. There isn't much room for error when all the picks are such quality players, and taking someone like Mark Reynolds 5th overall could really hurt you (unless he repeats .280-45 with 30 SB...unlikely but not impossible).

I was disappointed with the number of votes I received, but I think people are low on my pitching. Then again, maybe it's good I value players differently than all of those voters. You can't win a fantasy league without finding inefficiencies everyone else misses...and, of course, you cannot win without a little luck. The teams in this draft are so even, I imagine this league would be more decided by luck than anything else.

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